Concerns about living costs and rising interest rates will slow down demand for homes in the second half of the year, according to the latest housing price report from MyHome.ie.
It reveals that a “minor” fall in house prices may be on the way as a result, but says a “Celtic tiger” crash is unlikely.
The asking prices for houses are now up by 10.9% compared to the same time last year, with the median price for the second quarter of € 320,000.
This is a slowdown in the growth rate, where the latest report shows an annual price inflation of 12.3% for the year to March.
The median price in Dublin increased to € 403,000.
National asking prices rose by 5.3% compared with the previous quarter – however, the data indicate that price inflation will decline during the last six months of the year.
Conall MacCoille, author of the report and chief economist at Davy, said that anecdotal evidence from realtors suggests that the momentum driving price inflation earlier in the year is beginning to wane.
But he said it was unlikely there would be a repeat of the Celtic Tiger era.
“Mortgage rules have kept the market in check,” he said.
MyHome.ie CEO Joanne Geary said that inflationary pressures are likely to dampen demand during the year, leading to a “two-half year”.
“We expect that the first half of the year will see a stronger increase in price inflation than in the second half with our forecast of price increases of 7% for the year,” she said.
Rising supply levels
The report reveals that there were 12,700 properties listed for sale on MyHome.ie in June, up from 11,200 in March and flat over the past 12 months.
“It’s encouraging to see inventory levels and new quotes rise this quarter, albeit from a low base,” Geary said.
However, she pointed out that demand is still far above supply.
“This imbalance must be corrected for normalcy to return to the market,” she added.
MacCoille added that this is the first time there has been no reduction from year to year in the number of properties listed for sale since 2019.
“In Dublin, the number of homes for sale in June was 3,900, an increase of 7% over the previous year, now at the highest level since mid-2020.
“That said, the housing market is still very tight, with lists still well below 21,000 on average through 2017-2019,” he added.
He pointed out that the small improvement has not been driven by a lack of demand, but rather that suppliers are returning to the market.
The report reveals that the average time it takes for an agreed property to be sold fell to a new record low level of just 2.6 months during the second quarter of the year.
Mr MacCoille said this was a sign of the huge gap between supply and demand that was evident across Ireland.
“The average time for sale agreed outside Dublin has also dropped to a record low of 2.9 months – it only takes two weeks longer to sell a property outside the capital,” he added.
The report also reveals that 20% of those who have a mortgage approval, or 8,500 potential home buyers, fail to secure a property each year – which further highlights the difficulties people face when it comes to buying a home.
The figures show that the median price for all properties listed for sale on the MyHome website was € 278,000 in the second quarter of the year, an increase of 4.9% compared to the previous year.
Median prices in Louth have seen the strongest increase in the last 12 months, up 15.4% to € 225,000 in the second quarter, closely followed by a 14% increase in Wexford to € 245,000.
Offaly has also seen a profit of 9.4% to 210,000 euros and an increase of 8.1% in Westmeath to 200,000 euros.
At the same time, border counties have seen very strong price inflation.
In Cavan, price inflation in the second quarter was 13.4% to 190,000 euros, while prices in Donegal rose enormously by 19.4% to 185,000 euros and they rose by 12.1% in Monaghan, also to 185,000 euros.
Today’s report also shows that the upward pressure on rents has continued, with the CPI’s private rent index showing an 11.2% increase in rents during the year to May.
This follows an increase of 9% last year, according to the Residential Tenancies Board, when rents rose to a new record of € 1,415 on average and by 8.9% to € 1,972 in Dublin.
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